Protracted Covid-19 to cost Australia economy nearly $10 billion in 2022 – latest study

According to the World Health Organization (WHO). 10-20% of people Suffering from COVID for a very long time after recovering from the initial COVID infection.

common Symptoms include: Fatigue, shortness of breath and “brain fog,” but greater than 200 different symptoms have long been related to COVID. The condition affects every day functioning and will be debilitating.

Our research, published today, estimates the economic burden. Prolonged COVID in Australia. We calculated that prolonged COVID cost the Australian economy around A$10 billion in 2022 alone.

What is prolonged COVID?

WHO explains. Prolonged COVID As the persistence or development of latest symptoms three months after initial COVID infection, where these symptoms persist for at the least two months without a proof.

We are still learning about what causes COVID for a very long time, but persistent symptoms will be explained by the varied effects of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID). Different parts of the body. For example, a virus can infect The heartblood vessels and lungs.

Research shows that prolonged COVID is related to persistence of the virus within the body. Long after infectionand in turn causes dysfunction Immune system.

SARS-CoV-2 may also infect the brain. perceptionparticularly executive function, which is the power to plan, monitor, and execute goals. This may end up in difficulty performing work tasks and other activities of every day living in individuals with prolonged exposure to COVID.

what did we do

We used Australian data to estimate infections in 2022 and modeled prolonged COVID and recovery rates across age groups to know the burden of prolonged COVID.

We then used this data in a mathematical model to estimate economy-wide labor supply losses in 2022 and determine the reduction in real gross domestic product (GDP). Economic losses occur because people affected by COVID for a very long time could also be unable to work or work at a reduced capability for a time frame.

We found that at a peak in September 2022, as much as 1,374,805 people (5.4% of Australians) were living with prolonged COVID after an infection. Allowing for recovery from prolonged COVID, as much as 3.4% would still be living with prolonged COVID after 12 months.

We estimated that greater than 100 million hours of labor were lost in 2022 in consequence of prolonged COVID. These lost hours of employment translate to an economic cost of roughly $9.6 billion, corresponding to 0.5% of 2022 GDP.

Working adults between the ages of 30 and 49 were essentially the most affected. Estimated work loss was highest for people aged 30–39 years (27.5 million hours, or 26.9% of total work loss) who had the very best overall duration of COVID of any age group. More numbers seen. 40-49 12 months olds followed closely behind, accounting for an estimated 24.5 million lost hours, or 23.9% of total labor loss.

These younger age groups are prone to have higher rates of prolonged COVID because they experience more COVID infections, possibly because they're more mobile and blend with others more.

We didn't include the losses of healthy employees who couldn't work resulting from COVID or caring for others with COVID for an prolonged time frame. Further, we considered just one COVID infection, and the chance of long-term COVID outbreaks thereafter. But we didn't consider the chance of re-infection, which Increase in probability of prolonged COVID. Our research subsequently likely underestimates the consequences of prolonged COVID.

Prolonged COVID affects people of all ages, and might occur whatever the severity of their COVID infection. Widespread and ongoing COVID infection signifies that even when only a small percentage of individuals develop COVID over a protracted time frame, that's still a really large number of individuals.

In comparison, 2% Australian Coronary heart disease is the leading reason for morbidity and death in Australia (and the world). Even if only 3.4% of individuals have chronic Covid, the general public health and economic costs are enormous.

And unlike coronary heart disease, which disproportionately affects older people, our study suggests that the long-term impact of COVID is best amongst working-age adults, which is why the economic impact There are too many.

A worldwide phenomenon

Many countries including The United States And Britain is experiencing it. Similar economic losses Due to prolonged COVID, with increasing number of individuals unable to work.

Recent estimates suggest approx. 400 million people The world has been around for a very long time. The condition could cost US$1 trillion annually – the equivalent of about 1% of the worldwide economy.

The weight of the encompassing evidence Prolonged COVID And its impact on population health has prompted experts to incorporate this condition in policy decisions.

What can we do?

In Australia, it's primarily the immediate outcomes of severe COVID, reminiscent of hospitalization and death, which are used to find out the efficacy of antivirals and the importance of vaccines. Healthy individuals below 70 years of age aren't eligible. Subsidized antiviralswhile there are vaccines. Restricted to children And adults Booster rate is low.

But there is robust evidence for this. Vaccines Reduce the likelihood of prolonged COVID, and a few evidence Anti-viral It may also reduce the chance. Therefore prolonged COVID must be included in Australian policy and guidance on antivirals and vaccines.

Other measures that reduce the chance of COVID infection may even reduce the chance of long-term COVID. These include focusing. Safe indoor airand using masks in high-risk, crowded areas During the COVID pandemicEspecially in health care and aged care settings.

Finally, we want to think about help these people. Prolonged COVID Which cannot work. Long COVID is the sting within the tail of SARS-CoV-2, and proactively planning for it's going to minimize the impact on society.