Approx Half are teenagers and three-quarters are adults in America Classified as clinically obese or obese in 2021.
Without immediate intervention, our study predicts that greater than 80% of adults and nearly 60% of adolescents will likely be obese or obese by 2050.
A synthesis of body mass index data from 132 unique sources within the United States, including national And State Representative Surveyswe examined historical trends in obesity and obese status from 1990 to 2021 and projected projections to 2050.
For people age 18 and older, the definition of what health researchers call “overweight” is Body mass indexor BMI, 25 kilograms per square meter (kg/m²) to lower than 30 kg/m² and obesity as a BMI of 30kg/m² or more. For those under 18, we based the definitions International Obesity Task Force criteria.
This study was conducted by Global Disease Study 2021 The US Obesity Forecasting Collaborator Group, made up of 300 experts and researchers with expertise in obesity.
Why it matters
The US already has one. Highest rates of obesity and overweight people globally. Our study estimates that in 2021, tomorrow 208 million people in the US were classified as clinically obese or obese;
There is obesity. Slow health improvement and life expectancy within the U.S. in comparison with other high-income countries. Previous research has shown that. 335,000 deaths from obesity in 2021 alone and is some of the dominant and rapidly increasing risk aspects for sick health and early death. obesity Increases risk Diabetes, heart attack, stroke, cancer and mental health disorders.
The economic impact of obesity can also be profound. A report by the Republican members of the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress, published in 2024, Predicted health care costs related to obesity. It will increase to 9.1 trillion US dollars in the following decade.
The increase in childhood and adolescent obesity is especially related to obesity rates. More than twice as much among 15- to 24-year-olds Since 1990. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey show that about 20% of youngsters and adolescents ages 2 to 19 within the United States are obese. Living with obesity.
By 2050, our forecast results suggest that 1 in 5 children and 1 in 3 young adults will experience obesity. Increasing obesity in children and adolescents not only triggers the early onset of chronic diseases, but additionally negatively impacts mental health, social interactions, and physical functioning.
And what research is being done?
Our research highlighted substantial geographic disparities within the prevalence of obese and obesity across states, with South American states experiencing a few of the highest rates.
Other studies of obesity within the United States have also highlighted significant socioeconomic, racial, and ethnic disparities. Previous studies have shown that Black and Hispanic populations show higher obesity rates. in comparison with their white counterparts. This disparity is further. Increased due to systemic disruptions.including discrimination, unequal access to education, health care and economic inequality.
Another lively area of ​​research involves identifying effective obesity interventions, including a recent study in Seattle that showed that a tax on sugary drinks Decreased mean body mass index in children. Various community-based studies have also investigated interventions aimed toward Increased access to physical activity and healthy foods, Especially in unprotected areas.
Clinical research is actively searching for. New anti-obesity drugs And are continuously monitoring. Effectiveness and safety of current medications.
Additionally, there's a growing body of research to judge. Technology-based behavioral interventionsequivalent to mobile health apps, to assist with weight management. However, whether a lot of these programs are scalable and sustainable stays unclear. These differences hinder the broader adoption and adaptation of effective interventions, limiting their potential impact on the population level.
What's next?
Our study predicts trends in obese and obesity over the following three many years from 2022 to 2050, assuming no motion is taken.
With the arrival of latest generation anti-obesity drugs, the management of obesity may change significantly. However, the extent of this effect will rely on aspects equivalent to cost, access, coverage, long-term efficacy and variability in individual response. Future research might want to benefit from the newest evidence.